Abstracts
Below are abstracts for most publications.
These are provided for two reasons.
First, because of the interdisciplinary
nature of my research program, no abstract service covers all journals
in which I publish.
Second, abstract services too
often provide abbreviated, misleading, or erroneous versions of the original
published abstracts. With respect to publication #3, for instance,
PsycINFO, begins "Using 38 paid college students" when the sample actually
consisted of 40 student volunteer participants! Or regarding #42,
PsycINFO specifies an "inverted backward-U function" when the original
publication correctly says "inverted backward J function" (how can a U
function be backward anyway?).
Of course, it is also more convenient
to have all of the abstracts in one place.
1.
Simonton, D. K. (1974). The social psychology of creativity: An archival
data analysis. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Harvard University.
2.
Simonton, D. K. (1975a). Age and literary creativity: A cross-cultural
and transhistorical survey. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 6,
259-277.
Research on the relation between
age and creative achievement could be improved by using (a) cross-cultural
and transhistorical data and (b) multivariate rather than bivariate analyses.
A sample of 420 literary creators was drawn from histories, anthologies,
and biographical dictionaries of Western, Near Eastern, and Far Eastern
literatures. The modal productive age was then regressed on field and civilization
categorical variables, longevity, time, and eminence control variables,
and a number of interaction terms. Results confirmed that (a) poetry is
produced at a younger age than prose (but failed to find any age difference
between informative and imaginative prose), (b) achieved eminence and life
span are positive determinants of the modal productive age, and (c) these
relationships are cross-culturally and transhistorically invariant.
3.
Simonton, D. K. (1975b). Creativity, task complexity, and intuitive versus
analytical problem solving. Psychological Reports, 37, 351-354.
Using 40 Ss the relative
effectiveness of intuitive and analytical problem solving was determined
as a function of creativity and task complexity. A three-way analysis of
variance yielded a significant three-way interaction between thinking mode
(intuition or analysis), task complexity, and creativity (as measured by
the Baron-Welsh Art Scale). More creative Ss found intuition more
effective for a complex task, analysis on the simple task; this relation
was reversed for the less creative Ss.
4.
Simonton, D. K. (1975c). Galton's problem, autocorrelation, and diffusion
coefficients. Behavior ScienceResearch,
10, 239-248.
The linked pair solution to Galton's
problem is examined from the perspective of the autocorrelation problem
in economics. The estimated degrees of freedom, but not the correlations,
are shown to be inflated due to diffusional and historical associations.
An alternative form of the linked pair method is derived from the Orcutt-James
solution to the autocorrelation problem. This technique permits unrestricted
sampling of societies along a diffusion or geographic arc, and then provides
a formula for calculating the effective number of nonredundant cases for
statistical tests. The advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed.
5.
Simonton, D. K. (1975d). Interdisciplinary creativity over historical time:
A correlational analysis of generational fluctuations. Social Behavior
and Personality, 3, 181-188.
The interdisciplinary relationships
among 15 kinds of creative achievement were examined over 130 generations
of European history (controlling for linear, quadratic, and cubic time
trends). A P-technique factor analysis located three major interdisciplinary
clusters: (a) discursive (science, philosophy, literature, and music),
(b) presentational (painting, sculpture, and architecture), and (c) rationalism-mysticism
(physical science and general philosophy vs religion and painting). A cross-lagged
correlation analysis indicated that minor discursive creators tended to
inhibit the development of minor presentational creators in the next generation.
Personological, interpersonal, and sociocultural explanations for the findings
are discussed.
6.
Simonton, D. K. (1975e). Invention and discovery among the sciences: A
p-technique factor analysis. Journal of Vocational Behavior,
7, 275-281.
This paper explors how discoveries
and inventions in nine scientific disciplines cluster over time in Western
culture. The transhistorical sample consisted of 12,761 major scientific
contributions tabulated into 44 time-units (full, half, and quarter centuries)
extending from 800 B.C. to 1900 A.D. A factor analysis was executed on
the correlations among the nine measures after partialing out 3rd-order
polynomial time trends. Three orthogonal factors appeared: concrete (chemistry,
physics, and biology), abstract (astronomy and mathematics), and applied
(technology, geography, and geology) clusters. Medicine loaded moderately
on the concrete and abstract clusters. Three types of explanations are
discussed - personological, interpersonal, and sociocultural - with suggestions
for how they might be tested.
7.
Simonton, D. K. (1975f). Sociocultural context of individual creativity:
A transhistorical time-series analysis.
Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 32, 1119-1133.
Hypotheses hypotheses were stated
which specify individual creativity as a function of developmental and
productive period variables. It was argued that these hypotheses could
be better tested by examining generational fluctuations in creativity.
Information from cultural and political archival sources was thus aggregated
to form time series spanning 127 generations of European history. Data
quality checks, control variables, data transformations, time-lagged comparisons,
and trend analyses were used to improve the validity of the causal inferences.
While the results varied according to the type of creativity (discursive
or presentational) and the degree of achieved eminence, creative development
was found to be affected by (a) role model availability, (b) political
fragmentation, (c) imperial instability, and (d) political instability.
8.
Simonton, D. K. (1976a). Biographical determinants of achieved eminence:
A multivariate approach to the Cox data.
Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology, 33, 218-226.
Ranked eminence of creators and
leaders was hypothesized to be a function of both substantive (developmental
and productive) variables and methodological artifacts. Results indicate
that ranked eminence is (a) a curvilinear inverted-U function of education
for creators but a negative linear function for leaders, (b) a positive
linear functions of versatility for leaders only, and (c) a curvilinear
U-shaped function of life span for creators but a "backwards-J" function
for leaders. Although creators were more intelligent than leaders, the
correlation that Cox found between intelligence and ranked eminence was
shown to be an artifact of data reliability and especially, a time-wise
sampling bias. It was also shown that father's status had no direct impact
on ranked eminence.
9.
Simonton, D. K. (1976b). The causal relation between war and scientific
discovery: An exploratory cross-national analysis. Journal of Cross-Cultural
Psychology, 7, 133-144.
Using cross-lagged correlation analyses
as the basis for causal inferece, the relationship between war and scientific
discovery and invention was explored in seven European nations. Measures
of war duration and scientific productivity were generated using 14 or
16 quarter-century periods, or "generations," as the unit of analysis within
each nation. The analyses indicated significant associations for England
and Russia (war encouraging science in the next generation), Spain (war
discouraging science in the next generation), Holland (science discouraging
war in the next generation), and France (war and science correlating positively
in the same generation), whereas Germany and Italy exhibited no significant
relationships. Discussion of the causal inconsistencies led to the suggestion
that future research separately analyze different scientific disciplines
and their respective relations to various categories of war.
10.
Simonton, D. K. (1976c). Do Sorokin's data support his theory?: A study
of generational fluctuations in philosophical beliefs. Journal for the
Scientific Study of Religion, 15, 187-198.
The question was raised regarding
the empirical support for Sorokin's cyclical theory of philosophical, religious,
and scientific movements. Transhistorical measures of creativity and philosophical
beliefs were used which spanned 122 generations (or 20-year periods) from
540 B.C. to 1900 A.D. in Western history. An analysis of non-transformed
and first-differenced data indicated that (a) philosophical beliefs form
two positively correlated Sensate and Ideational clusters, (b) Sensate
times are associated with scientific creativity and Ideational times with
religious activity, and (c) these relationships hold solely for immediate
generational fluctuations since the time-wise trends for Sensate and Ideational
systems are the same. An alternative explanation was proposed which may
better fit the data but which casts doubt on Sorokin's forecast of a new
Ideational age of religious activity.
11.
Simonton, D. K. (1976d). Ideological diversity and creativity: A re-evaluation
of a hypothesis. SocialBehavior and Personality, 4, 203-207.
Using political fragmentation and
imperial instability as indicators, an earlier study attempted to show
that cultural diversity has a positive influence on personal creative development.
This paper re-examines that hypothesis by first introducing ideological
diversity as a more direct indicator and then testing for relationships
using cross-lagged correlation analysis. With data extending over 122 generations
(20-year periods) of Western history, it was found that: (1) political
fragmentation, imperial instability, and ideological diversity all
correlate with creativity, but the first indicator has no contemporaneous
relationship with the last two; (2) none of the cross-lagged correlations
between the three cultural diversity indicators and creativity were statistically
significant, and hence they may not be developmental influences; and (3)
political fragmentation has a significant impact on the emergence of ideological
diversity in the next generation. The inference is that the original hypothesis
is probably oversimplified.
12.
Simonton, D. K. (1976e). Interdisciplinary and military determinants of
scientific productivity: A cross-lagged correlation analysis. Journal
of Vocational Behavior, 9, 53-62.
This paper explores the contemporaneous
and intergenerational relationships among various scientific endeavors
and military activity. Using European historical data from 1500 to 1900
A.D., generational (or 25-year) fluctuations were examined for nine
categories of scientific discovery and invention and for two aspects of
military activity. A cross-lagged correlational analysis indicated
that (a) casualties (but not war duration) has a significant negative contemporaneous
association with medical discoveries, (b) several scientific disciplines
display positive intergenerational influences (e.g., medicine, geology,
and chemistry on biology), and (c) astronomy exhibits a negative
intergenerational impact on technology, medicine, biology, and geology.
Findings are discussed in terms of both stimulating interdisciplinary information
exchanges and inhibitory competitive recruitment.
13.
Simonton, D. K. (1976f). Philosophical eminence, beliefs, and zeitgeist:
An individual-generational analysis. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 34, 630-640.
Twelve hypotheses were proposed
that specify the eminence of thinkers to be a function of belief structure,
zeitgeist relationships, and sociocultural and political variables.
An archival research design was introduced that simultaneously tests individual
and generational factors. The sample consisted of 2,012 thinkers from Occidental
civilization spanning 124 generations from 580 B.C. to 1900 A.D. The dependent
variable was derived from a factor analysis of 10 distinct measures. A
multiple-regression analysis indicated that philosophical eminence is a
function of (a) breadth, extremism, and consistency of belief structure;
(b) zeitgeist representativeness, precursiveness, and modernity; (c) role
model availability (but not ideological diversity); (d) political fragmentation
and political instability (but neither imperial instability nor war intensity);
and (e) historical proximity to the present. Implications of the results
and design for further research are briefly discussed.
14.
Simonton, D. K. (1976g). The sociopolitical context of philosophical beliefs:
A transhistorical causal analysis. Social Forces, 54, 513-523.
This paper applies a quasi-experimental
design to the problem of the causal relation between intellectual and political
movements. A sample of 122 consecutive "generations" (or 20-year periods)
was drawn from European history (540 B.C. to 1900 A.D.). A cross-lagged
correlation analysis indicated the following intergenerational influences:
(1) political fragmentation has a positive impact on the emergence of empiricism,
skepticism-criticism-fideism, materialism, temporalism, nominalism, singularism,
and the ethics of happiness; (2) war has a negative impact on the appearance
of most of these just mentioned beliefs; (3) skepticism-criticism-fideism
and perhaps materialism have a positive influence on the appearance of
war; and (4) civil disturbances tend to polarize beliefs on all major philosophical
issues.
15.
Simonton, D. K. (1977a). Creative productivity, age, and stress: A biographical
time-series analysis of 10 classical composers. Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology, 35, 791-804.
The determinants of creative productivity
were specified in the form of six hypotheses. Using a multivariate, cross-sectional,
time-series design with several controls, the lives and works of 10 classical
composers were analyzed into consecutive 5-year periods. Two independent
measures of productivity were operationalized (works and themes), with
each measure subdivided into major and minor compositions according to
a citation criterion. It was consistently found across both productivity
measures that (a) quality of productivity was a probabilistic consequence
of productive quantity and (b) total productivity, while affected by age
and physical illness, was otherwise free of external influences (viz, social
reinforcement, biographical stress, war intensity, and internal disturbances).
Due to the more selective nature of the thematic productivity measure,
the criterion of total themes alone was affected by competition and a time-wise
bias. The article closes with a brief discussion of the broad subtantive
utility of the methodological design.
16.
Simonton, D. K. (1977b). Cross-sectional time-series experiments: Some
suggested statistical analyses. Psychological Bulletin, 84,
489-502.
In the past, statistical analyses
for time-series experiments have usually operated with a single-case model,
thereby limiting the general applicability of the designs. In this article,
alternative analytical procedures are developed for cross-sectional time-series
in which the sample size is large and the number of observations per case
is relatively small. Interrupted time series, equivalent time samples,
and multiple time series are all treated within a multiple regression framework.
A generalized least squares estimation procedure is outlined as a more
suitable alternative to the Box and Jenkins approach. Some of the special
advantages of the designs are briefly discussed.
17.
Simonton, D. K. (1977c). Eminence, creativity, and geographic marginality:
A recursive structural equation model. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 35, 805-816.
A recursive structural equation
model that specifies the individual and generational causes - both direct
and indirect - of achieved eminence was hypothesized. Although the model
can be applied to any creative discipline, it was specifically tested on
696 of the most famous composers in Western classical music. The detection
of several significant specification errors in the postulated model necessitated
its respecification until a final model emerged. The resulting seven-equation
model describes the complex causal network interrelating eminence, creative
productivity, creative longevity, life span, creative precociousness, geographic
marginality, role-model availability, and birth year. Although the structural
model awaits further confirmation on samples of famous creators in other
disciplines, the present model is seen as exemplifying a general procedure
of causal analysis just recently introduced into personality and social
psychology.
18.
Simonton, D. K. (1977d). Women's fashions and war: A quantitative comment.
Social
Behavior and Personality, 5, 285-288.
Previous research has suggested
that the fashion changes in women's dress may be influenced by contemporary
political context. This suggestion was tested for European women from 1797
to 1936. International war was found to induce women to wear the short
"Empire" mode, whereas international peace was found to encourage the long
"Hour Glass" mode. By comparison, intranational war apparently nurtures
the short Hour Glass mode, while intranational peace favors the long Empire
mode. Contrary to the conclusions of prior research, the fashion behavior
of women does not become more unstable during political conflicts.
19.
Simonton, D. K. (1978a). The eminent genius in history: The critical role
of creative development. Gifted Child Quarterly, 22, 187-195.
Why do creative geniuses appear
in some periods of history but not in others? A review of recent research
suggests that various external factors - including formal education, role-model
availability, zeitgeist, political fragmentation, war, civil disturbances,
and political instability - have a critical impact on the development of
creative potential in the young genius. Once that potential is established,
however, and the genius enters adulthood, creative productivity tends to
proceed with little interference from outside events.
20. Simonton, D. K. (1978b). Erratum to Simonton. Psychological
Bulletin, 85, 1000.
Reports an error in the original article by D. K. Simonton (Psychological
Bulletin, 1977 [May], Vol No. 84, 489-502). There is an error
on page 497. Contrary to the author's statement, each and every independent
variable (namely, the dummy, time, and product terms) should be transformed
in the same manner as the dependent variable, using Equation 4.
21.
Simonton, D. K. (1978c). Independent discovery in science and technology:
A closer look at the Poisson distribution.
Social Studies of Science,
8, 521-532.
Social determinists have argued
that the occurrence of independent discoveries and inventions demonstrates
the inevitability of techno-scientific progress. Yet the frequence of such
multiples may be adequately predicted by a probabilistic model, especially
the Poisson model suggested by Price. A detailed inquiry reveals that the
Poisson distribution can predict almost all of the observed variation in
the frequency distribution of multiples collected by Merton, and by Ogburn
and Thomas. This study further indicates that: (a) the number of observed
multiples may be greatly underestimated, particularly those involving few
independent contributors; (b) discoveries and inventions are not sufficiently
probable to avoid a large proportion of total failures, and hence techno-scientific
advance is to a large measure indeterminate; (c) chance or 'luck' seems
to play such a major part that the 'great genius' theory is no more tenable
than the social deterministic theory.
22.
Simonton, D. K. (1978d). Intergenerational stimulation, reaction, and polarization:
A causal analysis of intellectual history. Social Behavior and Personality,
6, 247-251.
Some of Sorokin's conclusions regarding
ideological creativity were appraised by applying a cross-lagged correlation
analysis to his generational measures of 7 intellectual issues and 18 beliefs.
These measures extended from 540 B.C. to 1900 A.D. but were confined to
European philosophers. Results indicate the operation of intergenerational
stimulation, reaction, and polarization in the history of ideas. But Sorokin's
specific qualitative inductions were only partly substantiated. In particular,
there was no evidence that the rise of one idea can cause the decline of
another idea in the following generation.
23.
Simonton, D. K. (1978e). Time-series analysis of literary creativity: A
potential paradigm. Poetics, 7, 249-259.
Many key questions concerning literary
creativity may be answered using time-series analysis. The two most useful
types of time series are (a) biographical time series consisting of consecutive
observations of the lives of eminent writers and (b) transhistorical time
series consisting of consecutive observations of the progression of literary
traditions. Either time series may be subjected to correlation analyses
(bivariate correlation, autocorrelation, and p-type factor analysis),
quasi-experimental analyses (interrupted time series and cross-lagged correlation
technique), and multiple regression analyses (generational time series,
individual-generational analysis, and cross-sectional time series). Past
research on creativity is cited to illustrate the scope of the substantive
issues which can be addressed using time series designs.
24.
Simonton, D. K. (1979a). Multiple discovery and invention: Zeitgeist, genius,
or chance? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 1603-1616.
The occurrence of independent contributions
by two or more scientists can be interpreted in terms of zeitgeist, genius,
or chance. The relative adequacy of these three theories was examined by
hypothesizing four critical empirical tests. These tests focus on (a) the
general and intradisciplinary probability distribution of multiples and
(b) the relationship of individual eminence with multiple production and
priority. An analysis of 579 multiples and of 789 scientists and inventors
gave the most support to the chance theory, followed by the zeitgeist theory.
Results are integrated into a single probabilistic perspective that incorporates
some of the major features of all three theories.
25.
Simonton, D. K. (1979b). The notion of independent simultaneous invention
or discovery. Social Studies of Science, 9, 509-510.
26.
Simonton, D. K. (1979c). Reply to Algina and Swaminathan. Psychological
Bulletin, 86, 927-928.
Algina and Swaminathan have proposed
more sophisticated analyses for the cross-sectional time-series experiment.
Especially valuable is their suggested procedure for testing the empirical
adequacy of the hypothesized intervention model. Nonetheless, the greater
complexity of their approach may not always be justified in many research
applications. In particular, their exact-test method will normally yield
statistical inferences similar to those of my approximate-test procedure.
27.
Simonton, D. K. (1979d). Was Napoleon a military genius? Score: Carlyle
1, Tolstoy 1. Psychological Reports, 44, 21-22.
Carlyle's "Great Man" theory and
Tolstoy's "Zeitgeist" theory provide two alternative explanations of historical
events. Yet a quantitative study of the military career of Napoleon and
his contemporaries demonstrates that both views account for a significant
percentage of the variance in military success during the French Revolutionary
and Napoleonic Wars.
28.
Simonton, D. K. (1980a). Intuition and analysis: A predictive and explanatory
model. Genetic Psychology Monographs, 102, 3-60.
The present paper develops a model
of intuitive processes. The model assumes that (a) behavior and thought
can be viewed partly in terms of conditional probabilistic associations;
(b) the four probability thresholds of attention, behavior, cognition,
and habituation prescribe the psychological consequences of any given association
(e.g., whether it will be nonconscious, infraconscious, conscious, or ultraconscious,
respectively); (c) the overall probability distribution of associations
provides the basis for a two-dimensional personality typology; and (d)
arousal level has important relationships with both this typology and the
four probability thresholds. A number of empirical propositions are derived
which focus on verbal conditioning, concept formation, and problem solving.
The explanatory value of the model is discussed with respect to selected
issues in aesthetics, attitude change, and social judgment.
29.
Simonton, D. K. (1980b). Land battles, generals, and armies: Individual
and situational determinants of victory and casualties. Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology, 38, 110-119.
Military success on the battlefield
was hypothesized to be a function of both individual and situational factors.
Potential individual determinants included age (linear and curvilinear),
experience (battles and years), competence (winning streaks and cumulative
victories), and willingness to take the offensive. Possible situational
determinants included army size, home defense, divided command, and soldier
heterogeneity. Military success was gauged according to either a tactical
victory or a battle casualty edge (or superior "kill ratio"). A discriminant
analysis of 326 land battles indicated that the victor could be identified
71% of the time, given the predictors of years of experience, winning streaks,
willingness to take the offensive, and divided command. A regression analysis
of 205 land battles found that 18% of the variance in battle casualty edge
could be explained if cumulative victory, army size, divided command, and
date were known. Individual determinants were more important for predicting
victory, whereas situational determinants were more crucial for predicting
an edge in battle casualties. No Individual X Situation interaction effects
were found.
30.
Simonton, D. K. (1980c). Techno-scientific activity and war: A yearly time-series
analysis, 1500-1903 A.D. Scientometrics, 2, 251-255.
Previous research may have failed
to find a general relationship between war and techno-scientific activity
due to the failure (a) to treat the various types of war separately and
(b) to use yearly rather than generational time series. Hence, the present
study examined 404 consecutive years in European civilization from 1500
to 1903. Measures of four distinct kinds of war were defined and a log-transformed
measure of techno-scientific activity was derived from a factor analysis
of six histories and chronologies. The techno-scientific measure was regressed
on the war measures plus a set of control variables. Techno-scientific
activity was found to be a negative function of balance-of-power and defensive
wars fought within Europe. In contrast, imperial and civil wars exerted
no influence.
31.
Simonton, D. K. (1980d). Thematic fame and melodic originality in classical
music: A multivariate computer-content analysis. Journal of Personality,
48, 206-219.
In order to understand the foundation
of eminence in cultural activities, an attempt was made at learning why
some works creators produce are more famous than others. This paper specifically
investigates the differential fame of 5,046 themes by 10 eminent composers
of classical music. Hypotheses derived from past research in creativity
and esthetics were tested using a computerized content analysis. Results
show that (a) the fame of a musical theme is a positive linear function
of melodic originality (rather than a curvilinear inverted-U function)
and (b) melodic originality is a positive function of biographical stress
and of historical time, and an inverted backwards-J function of age.
32.
Simonton, D. K. (1980e). Thematic fame, melodic originality, and musical
zeitgeist: A biographical and transhistorical content analysis. Journal
of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 972-983.
The fame of a musical theme was
hypothesized to be a function of melodic originality and the composer's
concurrent creative productivity. Melodic originality, in turn, was hypothesized
to be a function of historical time and the composer's age. A citation
measure was used to define the fame of 15,618 themes from the classical
repertoire. A computerized content analysis of two-note transition possibilities
was used to operationalize melodic originality relative to both the entire
repertoire and the zeitgeist at time of composition. Methodological variables
were also defined to control for form, medium, work size, competition,
and the composer's lifetime productivity. A multiple regression analysis
showed that thematic fame is an inverted-J function of repertoire melodic
originality, a J-function of zeitgeist melodic originality, and a positive
function of creative productivity. Repertoire melodic originality is a
positive function of historical time and an inverted backwards- J function
of the composer's age, whereas zeitgeist melodic originality is a positive
linear function of the composer's age. The research design was also shown
to be especially suited for studying a creative product within the total
aethetic, personological, developmental, and sociocultural context.
33.
Simonton, D. K. (1981a). Creativity in Western civilization: Extrinsic
and intrinsic causes. American Anthropologist, 83, 628-630.
Comments on the defense of the external
validity of laboratory experiments by Berkowitz and Donnerstein, arguing
that they overlook the fact that lab experiments are not adept at demonstrating
exclusive one-way causality when two-way causality is a distinct possibility
in real-world settings.
34.
Simonton, D. K. (1981b). Presidential greatness and performance: Can we
predict leadership in the White House?
Journal of Personality, 49,
306-323.
Two related questions regarding
presidential leadership are addressed. First, what are the principal determimants
of the rated greatness of American presidents? Second, can presidential
performance be predicted using preelection biographical variables? Reliable
measures of greatness and performance were operationalized for the 38 Presidents
of the United States, along with numerous potential predictors suggested
by past literature on leadership, achieved eminence, and presidential popularity
and greatness. About 75% of the variance in Presidential greatness can
be predicted using administration duration, number of war years, unsuccessful
assassination attempts, scandals, and prepresidential publication record.
Family background, personal characteristics, education, occupation, and
political experiences provided few if any predictors of Presidential performance,
although succession to office through the vice-presidency exerted a rather
general negative effect.
35.
Simonton, D. K. (1981c). The library laboratory: Archival data in personality
and social psychology. In L. Wheeler (Ed.), Review of personality and
social psychology (vol. 2, pp. 217-243), Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.
36.
Simonton, D. K. (1981d). Totalitarian ego: Analogy or identity? American
Psychologist, 36, 689.
Comments that the analogy used by
Greenwald may be a disguised identity, as when an entity is inadvertently
made into an analogy with itself in a hidden form of circular reasoning.
37.
Simonton, D. K. (1982). One-way experimentation does not prove one-way
causation. American Psychologist, 37, 1404-1406.
Comments on the defense of the external
validity of laboratory experiments by Berkowitz and Donnerstein , arguing
that they overlook the fact that lab experiments are not adept at demonstrating
exclusive one-way causality when two-way causality is a distinct possibility
in real-world settings.
38.
Simonton, D. K. (1983a). Dramatic greatness and content: A quantitative
study of Eighty-One Athenian and Shakespearean plays. Empirical Studies
of the Arts, 1, 109-123.
Three hypotheses specified the possible
direct and indirect determinants of a play's greatness and issue content.
The sample consisted of eighty-one plays by Aeschylus, Sophocles, Euripedes,
Aristophanes, and Shakespeare. Each play's dramatic greatness was operationalized
using a citation measure. The Great Books Syntopicon was used to
define nineteen issue content domains and general issue richness. Multiple
regression analyses indicated that 1) dramatic greatness is a positive
function of line quotability, which in turn is a positive function of issue
richness, and 2) the particular issue or themes addressed in a play are
affected both by the playwright's personal age and by the presence of civil
unrest at the time of composition.
39.
Simonton, D. K. (1983b). Esthetics, biography, and history in musical creativity.
In Documentary report of the Ann Arbor Symposium (Session 3, pp.
41-48). Reston, VA: Music Educators National Conference.
40.
Simonton, D. K. (1983c). Formal education, eminence, and dogmatism: The
curvilinear relationship. Journal of Creative Behavior, 17, 149-162.
[Abstract in Resources in Education, 1981, 16, 89.]
The relationship between formal
education and creativity was investigated in two studies. A reanalysis
of Cox's (1926) 301 geniuses indicated that achieved eminence of creators
is a curvilinear inverted-U function of formal education. Secondly, a study
of 33 American presidents found that dogmatism (i.e., idealistic inflexibility)
is a curvilinear U-shaped function of formal education. Since creativity
and dogmatism are negatively associated, and may represent opposite points
on a single bipolar personality dimension, these findings imply that the
optimal amount of formal education for maximal creative potential is a
college experience that falls just short of attaining the baccalaureate
degree.
41.
Simonton, D. K. (1983d). Intergenerational transfer of individual differences
in hereditary monarchs: Genes, role-modeling, cohort, or sociocultural
effects? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 44, 354-364.
Individual differences may be transferred
across generations through either genetic inheritance, identification with
role models, cohort effects, or sociocultural influences. Each of these
four possible mechanisms makes different predictions regarding what traits
display intergenerational continuities, the pattern of relationships between
an individual and his or her relatives, as well as the relative impact
of same-sex and cross-sex relationships. A sample of 342 hereditary monarchs
were drawn from 14 European nations. These rulers, along with their parents,
grandparents, and predecessors, were then assessed on the variables of
intelligence, morality, eminence, leadership, life span, and reign span.
Theoretically significant interaction effects were also operationalized,
using such moderator variables as genetic relationship, years of overlap
in lives, age difference, difference in reign midpoints, and sex. The intergenerational
transfer of intelligence and life span was best explained by genetics,
whereas the transfer of morality and eminence was governed by role-modeling
processes. The remaining variables were either transferred by more complex
mechanisms (viz. leadership) or not transferred at all from one generation
to the next (viz. reign span). Results contradict both Woods's (1906) belief
that morality is genetically inherited and Galton's (1869) argument that
eminence can serve as a nearly equivalent proxy variable for intellectual
genius.
42.
Simonton, D. K. (1983e). Psychohistory. In R. Harré & R. Lamb
(Eds.), The encyclopedic dictionary of psychology (pp. 499-500).
Oxford: Blackwell.
43.
Simonton, D. K. (1984a). Artistic creativity and interpersonal relationships
across and within generations.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,
46, 1273-1286.
A successful "social psychology
of creativity" demands that the creative individual be placed within a
network of interpersonal relationships and group influences. Toward this
end, 772 artists were assessed for achieved eminence, and their relationships
with other artists were gauged in terms of both quantity and quality. These
social relationships could concern predecessors (paragons, masters, and
parents), contemporaries (rivals, collaborators, associates, friends, copupils,
and siblings), and successors (apprentices and admirers). Aggregate measures
of group artistic activity (zeitgeist) were also defined for both contemporary
and preceding generations. Five relationships - paragons, rivals, associates,
apprentices, and admirers - emerged as the most consistent correlates of
artistic eminence, though the aggregate measures provided useful predictors
over and above the individual-level effects. The impact of the various
interpersonal relationships was often moderated by the mean age difference
between the artist and the fellow artists entering a given social interaction.
For example, artistic eminence is a curvilinear inverted backward J function
of the mean artist-paragon age gap, in which the optimum point varies as
a negative monotonic function of the number of paragons emulated.
44.
Simonton, D. K. (1984b). Creative productivity and age: A mathematical
model based on a two-step cognitive process. Developmental Review, 4,
77-111.
It is argued that several empirical
aspects of the relation between age and productivity can be explained by
hypothesizing a simple two-step model of the creative process. Such a hypothesis
permits a delayed single-peak function to result from an underlying process
of constantly decelerating decay. The derived equation describes creative
productivity as a function of individual age. The equation is not only
shown to be consistent with empirical data on the relation between age
and achievement, but several important empirical predictions and theoretical
consequences are also inferred from the model. For instance, the model
(a) maintains that the age curves may be largely the intrinsic outcome
of cognitive processes rather than the extrinsic effect of developmental
changes or sociological influences; (b) predicts the explanatory superiority
of professional over chronological age; (c) explains the observed positive
intercorrelation among creative precociousness, productivity, and longevity
in terms of their mutual dependence on individual differences in creative
potential; and (d) provides a substantive basis for interpreting the variation
in age peaks across disciplines by introducing the concepts of ideation
rate, elaboration rate, and creative half-life. Tests to confirm or disconfirm
the model are also proposed.
45.
Simonton, D. K. (1984c). Creativity and leadership: Causal convergence
and divergence. In S. S. Gryskienicz, J. T. Shields, & S. J. Sensabaugh
(Eds.), Blueprint for innovation: Creativity Week VI, 1983 (pp.
187-202). Greensboro, NC: Center for Creative Leadership.
46.
Simonton, D. K. (1984d). Generational time-series analysis: A paradigm
for studying sociocultural influences. In K. Gergen & M. Gergen (Eds.),
Historical
social psychology (pp. 141-155). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
47.
Simonton, D. K. (1984e). Genius, creativity, and leadership: Historiometric
inquiries. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
Dean Keith Simonton examines uncommon
people; those creators and leaders whose impact on their own and later
times has been so great that they deserve the label "genius" [from jacket].
48.
Simonton, D. K. (1984f). Is the marginality effect all that marginal? Social
Studies of Science, 14, 621-622.
49.
Simonton, D. K. (1984g). Leader age and national condition: A longitudinal
analysis of 25 European monarchs.
Social Behavior and Personality, 12,
111-114.
In order to determine the relationship
between age and achievement in the politico-military domain, the reigns
of 25 long-tenured European absolute monarchs (those who reigned between
the Middle Ages and the Napoleonic era) were analyzed as cross-sectional
time series of 238 5-year age periods. Both linear and curvilinear age
functions were defined along with variables to control for individual differences,
linear time trends, and other potential artifacts. A partial correlation
analysis indicated that leader age tended to be negatively correlated with
military success in foreign wars and with treaty negotiation and positively
correlated with civil instability at home, whether in the royal family
or in the populace. Moreover, some indicators of military and diplomatic
success were curvilinear inverted U-functions of leader age, with the peak
occurring approximately in the leader's 42nd year.
50.
Simonton, D. K. (1984h). Leaders as eponyms: Individual and situational
determinants of monarchal eminence.
Journal of Personality, 52,
1-21.
The eponymic theory of leadership
maintaints that the eminence of rulers depends on their utility as historical
labels without regard to their personal attributes. The explanatory scope
of this interpretation was tested, for methodological reasons, on a sample
of 342 European hereditary monarchs. In support of eponymic theory: (a)
about two-thirds of variance in leader eminence could be ascribed to the
number of significant events occurring during the leader's tenure in office;
(b) events with positive and negative social valence carried approximately
equal positive weight; (c) events over which the leader exerts considerable
control have about the same weight as those over which personal control
is virtually nonexistent; and (d) the effects of epochcentric bias and
reign span are mediated by the number of significant events. But qualifying
eponymic theory: (a) eminence was not determined solely by the event tabulation
(e.g., leader fame is a J-curve function of intelligence and a U-curve
function of morality); (b) the number of events was not accounted for by
reign span; and (c) reign span was not solely a function of life span (e.g.,
reign span is a positive linear function of assessed leadership). The results
endorse a form of the theory in which provision is made for intellectual
and personality factors.
51.
Simonton, D. K. (1984i). Melodic structure and note transition probabilities:
A content analysis of 15,618 classical themes. Psychology of Music,
12, 3-16.
A content analytical scheme is described
that can assess aspects of melodic structure in large samples of themes.
This objective, computerized system was applied to 15,618 themes
drawn from the classical repertoire. Tables result that give the probabilities
of two- and three-note transitions, and, in the former case, the probabilities
are presented both presented transition-by-transition and averaged across
all transitions. Despite the simplicity of the coding system, it has been
shown in past research to be powerful enough to distinguish the musical
style of a composer and to yield a measure of melodic originality that
relates in significant ways to other aesthetic, biographical, and historical
variables. To illustrate this utility, the table of two-note transition
probabilities is employed both to gauge the melodic originality of a sample
set of composed themes and to generate contrived themes with known originality
scores for use in laboratory experiments on musical aesthetics.
52.
Simonton, D. K. (1984j). Huiyi Pulaisi. [Remembering Price]. Kexue Xue
Yu Kezue Jishu Guanli [Science Studies and Management of Science
and Technology], 9, 7-8.
53.
Simonton, D. K. (1984k). Scientific eminence historical and contemporary:
A measurement assessment. Scientometrics, 6, 169-182.
In some studies of scientific creativity
it has proved useful to assess the differential eminence of scientists
according to their presence in the historical record (as registered by
scholarly works). To determine the research utility of such indicators,
a sample of 2026 scientists spanning several centuries and nationalities
was taken from three biographical dictionaries of science. The eminence
of each scientist was gauged 23 distinct ways using a diversity of reference
works (e.g., histories, biographical dictionaries, encyclopedias, etc.)
and variable operationalizations (e.g., space measures, ratings, rankings,
etc.). Despite minor discrepancies due mainly to the degree of timewise
bias and reference work type, a factor analysis demonstrated the existence
of a pervasive consensus. A linear composite of these measures had an alpha
reliability of 0.78. Further, it was shown that (a) the reliability of
assessed eminence somewhat declines as it is applied to more recently born
scientists, (b) the reliability remains high within separate disciplines
and nationalities, and (c) assessed eminence, once complex time trends
are controlled, correlates positively with the more commonly used citation
counts, especially the number of cited publications. Hence, archival indicators
of scientific eminence are both reliable and consistent with other scientometric
procedures.
54.
Simonton, D. K. (1984l). Shakespeare színdarabjai és szonettjei:
A differenciális népszerüség meghatározói
[Shakespeare's plays and sonnets: Correlates of differential greatness].
Pszichológia,
4, 459-467.
55.
Simonton, D. K. (1984m). The nourishing mentor. Occidental, 8, 20-23.
Creative individuals provide role
models and even personal mentors, paragons that establish the basis for
the next step in the progress of human civilization.
56.
Simonton, D. K. (1985a). Genius, creativity and leadership. IEEE Potentials,
4, 31-32.
57.
Simonton, D. K. (1985b). Individual creativity and political leadership.
In R. L. Merritt & A. J. Merritt (Eds.), Innovation in the public
sector (pp. 39-62). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.
58.
Simonton, D. K. (1985c). Intelligence and personal influence in groups:
Four nonlinear models. Psychological Review, 92, 532-547.
Four models are progressively developed
that provide a conceptual basis for a curvilinear relation between intelligence
and an individual's influence over other group members. Model 1, by assuming
that influence is a function of percentile placement in intelligence, predicts
that beyond an IQ of about 120 intelligence bears a negligible connection
with influence. Model 2 adds the consideration of the degree of comprehension
by potential followers, yielding a nonmonotonic function with a predicted
peak IQ of about 108 (or a 0.5 SD above the mean). Model 3 incorporates
the criticism factor that acknowledges a group member's vulnerability to
intellectual superiors, and thereby predicts a second nonmonotonic function
with an optimal IQ of about 119 (or 1.2 SD above the mean). Model
4 expands on the fact that the mean group IQ varies across different groups
and, consequently, predicts a high correlation between the group mean IQ
and the IQ of its most influential member, with a leader-follower gap of
between 8 and 20 points (depending on the submodel).
59.
Simonton, D. K. (1985d). Quality, quantity, and age: The careers of 10
distinguished psychologists. International Journal of Aging and Human
Development, 21, 241-254.
The longitudinal relationship between
quality and quantity of productive output is examined over the careers
of ten recipients of the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award.
Four alternative models of this relationship - expertise-acquisition, youthful-enthusiasm,
peak-age, and constant-probability-of-success - yield distinctive
predictions regarding 1) how the ratio of major contributions to total
output changes as a career advances and 2) the developmental association
between major and minor works over consecutive time periods. The quality
of a publication was assessed by the citations it earned in the professional
literature. The results endorse the constant-probability-of-success
model (both across and within careers). Not only does confirmation of this
model provide support for Campbell's blind-variation-and-selective-retention
theory of creative thought, but it additionally has important implications
for understanding the role of age and chance in the careers of successful
psychologists.
60.
Simonton, D. K. (1985e). The vice-presidential succession effect: Individual
or situational basis? Political Behavior, 7, 79-99.
Simonton (1981) found that "accidental
presidents do not perform as well as duly elected chief executives. Though
this vice-presidential succession effect might be due to individual factors,
such as some deficiency in personality or political experience, it might
be due instead to situational factors, most notably the failure to
be perceived as having legitimate power by those already in power positions.
Three studies investigated the relative plausibility of individual and
situational explanations. Study 1 examined 49 president-vice-president
teams to determine the criteria by which running mates are selected. Study
2 looked at 69 leaders who served as either president, vice-president,
or both, in order to discover if accidental presidents can be differentiated
on biographical and political background variables. Study 3 scrutinized
100 congressional units in a time-series design to gauge the impact of
serving an unelected term as president. Results support a situational interpretation
based on the attribution of legitimate power.
61.
Simonton, D. K. (1986a). Aesthetic success in classical music: A computer
analysis of 1935 compositions. Empirical Studies of the Arts, 4,
1-17.
To further elucidate the basis of
aesthetic success in classical music, data on 8,992 themes were aggregated
into 1,935 compositions by 172 composers from the Renaissance to the present
day. Aesthetic success was gauged via compositional popularity and ratings
of aesthetic significance and audience accessibility, while aesthetic attributes
were assessed by melodic originality and originality variation as determined
by a computer content analysis of melodic structure. The results demonstrate
that the probability of a work being performed and recorded is a function
of aesthetic attributes and melodic content, with direct and indirect effects
of artistic, biographical, and historical conditions. Aesthetic taste is
thus not arbitrary but lawful, for it is grounded in the intrinsic qualities
of a piece, which in turn reflect the state of the composer at the time
of composition.
62.
Simonton, D. K. (1986b). Harminchat magyar és amerkai novella esztétikai
sikeressége [Aesthetic success in 36 Hungarian and American short
stories]. Pszichológia, 6, 533-540.
The argument [is] presented . .
. that subjective ratings and objective citation measures are essentially
equivalent due to underlying contrasts in artistic effectiveness we have
been asked to apply our theoretical and methodological wherewithal to 18
Hungarian and 18 American short stories / therefore, these 36 stories provide
the basis for addressing the problem at hand / first, I demonstrate that
independent assessors will form a consensus on the differential aesthetic
success of these short stories / second, I show that this agreement is
in accordance with what we would conclude on the basis of an archival citation
measure.
63.
Simonton, D. K. (1986c). Age, creative productivity, and chance. In Proceedings
of the 81st Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association,
p.92. [Abstract]
A socio-psychological theory of
innovation is outlined which can be considered an extensive elaboration,
with shifts in nomenclature, of Donald Campbell's (1960) blind-variation
and selective-retention model of knowledge acquisition. Styled the "chance-configuration
theory," this interpretative framework specifies just how chance mediates
the connection between individual age and both the creation and the social
acceptance of a novel cultural product. In particular, the theory (a) yields
an equation that precisely predicts the functional relation between productivity
and career age over the life span while concomitantly explicating stable
contrasts across disciplines in the age curves, (b) explains the basis
for individual differences in productive precocity, contribution rates,
and longevity, including the distinctive skewed distribution of total output
across careers, and (c) provides a larger conceptual foundation for the
constant-probability-of-success model of the association between quantity
and quality of productive output both across and within careers. In addition,
the chance-configuration theory can handle other key issues in sociocultural
change, mot notably, Planck's principle, the Ortega hypothesis, and the
phenomenon of multiple discovery and invention.
64.
Simonton, D. K. (1986d). Biographical typicality, eminence, and achievement
style. Journal of Creative Behavior, 20, 14-22.
Examined how exceptional achievers
in diverse endeavors can be differentiated by their biographical characteristics,
using data on 314 famous personalities from a study by M. G. Goertzel et
al (1978). Data on each S were given a biographical typicality score and
a relative eminence score. The most illustrious contributors to a field
were found to be neither typical nor marginal in a biographical sense,
although a very modest tendency for the most eminent to be the most typical
did exist. Results suggest that there is no basis for discounting the most
famous personalities as some variety of freak or oddball; they are just
as good exemplars of the biographical antecedents as are their less notable
colleagues, and may be a bit more so.
65.
Simonton, D. K. (1986e). Dispositional attributions of (presidential) leadership:
An experimental simulation of historiometric results. Journal of Experimental
Social Psychology, 22, 389-418.
Historiometric results regarding
the predictors of presidential greatness were interpreted in terms of an
attributional model. The model delineates how historians make dispositional
inferences according to a leadership schema that is activated by salient
information. Study 1 tested the model by asking naive raters to assess
anonymous leaders, whereas Study 2 required identical assessments of anonymous
presidents. As predicted, greatness attributions were determined by the
same information that is employed by historians, with roughly the same
weights. Moreover, impact of the six historiometric predictors (years in
office, war, scandal, assassination, war hero, intelligence) on greatness
was largely mediated by three semantic components (i.e., strength, activity,
goodness). Finally, college undergraduates, though ignorant of the identity
of the leaders being rated, if granted the same limited information,
can accurately reproduce the ratings the presidents are given by historians.
66.
Simonton, D. K. (1986f). The masterpiece! Who? What? Where? When? Psychology
and the Arts Newsletter, Fall/Winter, 4-15. [Presidential address.]
67.
Simonton, D. K. (1986g). Multiple discovery: Some Monte Carlo simulations
and Gedanken experiments. Scientometrics, 9, 269-280.
Two major interpretations of multiples
have been offered, the traditional one based on the scientific zeitgeist,
the more recent one based on chance processes. To clarify the issues involved
in any plausible explanation, six successive Monte Carlo simulations were
developed. Though all models started with the same underlying probabilistic
mechanism, several elaborations were introduced, including exhaustion,
communication of both successes and failures, and variation in success
probability. The models yield the same probability distributions for multiple
grades, but they disagree on the frequency of nulltons. Additional Gedanken
experiments dealt with the zeitgeist notions of a causal link between potential
contributions.
68.
Simonton, D. K. (1986h). Multiples, Poisson distributions, and chance:
An analysis of the Brannigan-Wanner model. Scientometrics, 9, 127-137.
Brannigan and Wanner argue that
the empirical distribution of multiple grades can be more adequately explained
in terms of a negative contagious Poisson model. This alterantive is based
on a Zeitgeist theory which places emphasis on the role of communication
in scientific discovery. Nonetheless, a detailed analysis indicates the
following: (a) mathematically, the simple Poisson is the limiting case
of the contagious Poisson when the contagion parameter approaches zero;
(b) empirically, the mean and variance are so nearly equal (i.e., the contagion
effect is very small) that predictions from the contagious Poisson are
virtually equivalent to those of the simple Poisson; (c) in particular,
both distributions predict that multiples are less common than singletons
and even nulltons, the latter occurring with a probability of over one
third (thereby implying that chance plays a much bigger part than Zeitgeist
or maturational theories would suggest); (d) estimates from the Simonton,
Merton, and Ogburn-Thomas data sets all concur that the contagion effect
is not only small, but positive besides, yielding a modest positive contagious
Poisson that contradicts the principal tenet of the communication interpretation.
69.
Simonton, D. K. (1986i). Popularity, content, and context in 37 Shakespeare
plays. Poetics, 15, 493-510.
A two-stage research paradigm is
outlined: the aesthetic success of an artistic creation is a consequence
of intrinsic attributes (form and content), which in turn result from specific
biographical and historical context factors. The paradigm is illustrated
by exploiting data on the differential popularity of the 37 plays attributed
to Shakespeare. Statistical analyses demonstrate that (a) relative aesthetic
success can be reliably assessed via objective citation measures, (b) dramatic
popularity is affected by the thematic content of each play, and (c) the
thematic content has particular contextual antecedents. Thus the methodological
paradigm, which has proven fruitful in enhancing our understanding of creativity
in classical music, features considerable promise in advancing our appreciation
of literary creativity, dramatic or otherwise.
70.
Simonton, D. K. (1986j). Presidential greatness: The historical consensus
and its psychological significance.
Political Psychology, 7, 259-283.
Two interconnected questions are
addressed. One, does a historical consensus exist concerning the differential
"greatness" of the American presidents? Two, what do these ratings imply
about presidential leadership? A factor analysis of 16 presidential assessments
indicated the presence of a primary "greatness" dimension and a bipolar
"dogmatism" dimension. The three most recent measures were singled out
for an analysis aimed at identifying the antecedents of presidential greatness.
Hundreds of potential predictors were operationalized, including family
background, personality traits, occupational and political experiences,
and administration events. Five predictors that replicated across the greatness
measures and survived tests for transhistorical invariance. In descending
order of predictive generality, these are the number of years in office,
the number of years as a wartime commander-in-chief, administration scandal,
assassination, and having entered office as a national war hero. The theoretical
meaning of these predictors is explored in further empirical analysis and
discussion.
71.
Simonton, D. K. (1986k). Presidential personality: Biographical use of
the Gough Adjective Check List. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,
51, 149-160.
The Gough Adjective Check List was
used to gauge the personality differences among the 39 American presidents.
The original 300 adjectives were reduced to 110 on which reliable assessments
were feasible, and a factor analysis collapsed the data into 14 dimensions,
namely, Moderation, Friendliness, Intellectual Brilliance, Machiavellianism,
Poise and Polish, Achievement Drive, Forcefulness, Wit, Physical Attractiveness,
Pettiness, Tidiness, Conservatism, Inflexibility, and Pacifism. All but
one of these factors had respectable internal consistency reliability coefficients.
The factor scores were further validated by correlating them with (a) previous
content-analytical and observer-based assessments and (b) indicators of
developmental antecedents and performance criteria, including ratings of
presidential greatness. Similarities in personality profiles were explored
using a cluster analysis.
72.
Simonton, D. K. (1986l). Stochastic models of multiple discovery. Czechoslovak
Journal of Physics, B 36, 138-141.
The phenomenon of multiple discovery
has been traditionally interpreted as evidence for a "zeitgeist" theory
of scientific creativity. As an alternative, multiples are proposed to
result from a stochastic process. The simple Poisson is shown to match
the observed distribution of multiple grades, while a contagious Poisson
introduces a communcation restriction that induces approximate simultaneity.
Monte Carlo simulation models have further explored the theoretical requisites
for a full explication of the phenomenon. The fundamental generating mechanism
is thus shown to be stochastic rather than deterministic.
73.
Simonton, D. K. (1986m). Theory and philosophy in the psychology of the
arts. Theoretical and Philosophical Psychology, 6, 122-123.
74. Simonton, D. K. (1987a).
Musical aesthetics and creativity in Beethoven: A computer analysis of
105 compositions.
Empirical Studies of the Arts, 5, 87-104.
A fundamental task in empirical
aesthetics is to determine why some artistic creations earn the label "masterpiece"
whereas others slip into oblivion. Computer content analyses can help us
achieve this goal, first, by isolating connections between the differential
aesthetic success of diverse works and their content attributes, and, second,
by identifying the compositional, biographical, and historical correlates
of those content analytical predictors. After reviewing the key findings
with respect to the thousands of musical pieces defining the classical
repertoire, this investigation strategy is applied to 105 compositions
(containing 593 themes) by Beethoven. Two distinct measures of artistic
impact, compositional popularity and aesthetic signifiance, were shown
to be associated - often in a curvilinear fashion - with four content characteristics:
melodic originality and variation and metric originality and variation.
Some of these attributes are linked to such circumstances as the work's
key, the instrumentation, and the number of movements, Beethoven's age
and concurrent level of productivity, stress, and health, and the presence
of international war in Europe. Hence, an objective, computer analysis
can enhance our understanding of the aesthetic and creative processes behind
a single creator's artistic reputation.
75.
Simonton, D. K. (1987b). Developmental antecedents of achieved eminence.
Annals
of Child Development, 5, 131-169.
76.
Simonton, D. K. (1987c). Genius: The lessons of historiometry. In S. G.
Isaksen (Ed.), Frontiers of creativity research: Beyond the basics
(pp. 66-87). Buffalo, NY: Bearly Limited.
77.
Simonton, D. K. (1987d). Multiples, chance, genius, creativity, and zeitgeist.
In D. N. Jackson & J. P. Rushton (Eds.), Scientific excellence:
Origins and assessment (pp. 98-128). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.
Chapter outlines a theoretical interpretation
of multiples review of recent attempts to advance an entirely new conception
of the multiples phenomenon.
78.
Simonton, D. K. (1987e). Presidential inflexibility and veto behavior:
Two individual-situational interactions.
Journal of Personality, 55,
1-18.
The suitable personality traits
for optimal leadership may depend on the type of leadership, the criterion
of leader effectiveness, and various situational constraints. This point
was illustrated via the specific area of presidential leadership. The working
relationship between: the Chief Executive and Congress, as defined by regular
vetoes overturned, provided the criterion variables for a congressional
time-series analysis (N = 99) of all 39 American presidents. The
impact of a single personality attribute, presidential inflexibility, was
examined in the context of several variables suggested by past research.
The relation between inflexibility and willingness to exploit the regular
veto varied according to the incumbent's electoral mandate, while the association
between inflexibility and the propensity of Congress to override a veto
depended on the extent to which the president's party controlled Congress
- this last interaction was labeled the Johnson-Wilson effect. In the context
of the person-situation debate, these findings illustrate how situations
can determine whether, and to what degree, a stable individual attribute
will have behavioral manifestations.
79.
Simonton, D. K. (1987f). Why presidents succeed: A political psychology
of leadership. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
In this book, Dean Keith Simonton
takes an innovative look at the issue of presidential success, proposing
that we evaluate American presidents quantitatively instead of qualitatively.
Simonton measures presidential performance by four criteria-elections,
public opinion polls, relations with Congress, and evaluation by historians
[from the jacket].
80.
Martindale, C., Brewer, W. F., Helson, R., Rosenberg, S., Simonton, D.
K., Keeley, A., Leigh, J., & Ohtsuka, K. (1988). Structure, theme,
style, and reader response in Hungarian and American short stories. In
C. Martindale (Ed.), Psychological approaches to the study of literary
narratives (pp. 267-289). Hamburg: Buske.
Attempt to show the interrelations
of the quantitative measures used in these individual chapters / in regard
to the texts themselves, we have gathered measures of overall typicality
as well as more specific indices of story structure, semantics, and lexical
realization / we have also obtained measures of readers' cognitive and
affective responses to the stories / below, we first give a brief description
of the variables in each of these categories / then the most important
interrelationships about the variables are described the three basic questions
we have sought to answer in this chapter are (1) what determines overall
story typicality, (2) how are structural, semantic, and linguistic aspects
of literary texts interrelated, and (3) what determines liking for and
interest in a literary text looked at the global relations of structural
variables, thematic variables, and stylistic variables and their relations
to reader response variables.
81.
Simonton, D. K. (1988a). Age and outstanding achievement: What do we know
after a century of research? Psychological Bulletin, 104, 251-267.
This article examines, in four sections,
the substantial literature on the longitudinal connection between personal
age and outstanding achievement in domains of creativity and leadership.
First, the key empirical findings are surveyed, with special focus on the
typical age curve and its variations across disciplines, the association
between precocity, longevity, and production rate, and the linkage between
quantity and quality of output over the course of a career. Second, the
central methodological issues are outlined, such as the compositional fallacy
and differential competition, in order to appraise the relative presence
of fact and artifact in the reported results. Third, the more important
theoretical interpretations of the longitudinal data are presented and
then evaluated for explanatory and predictive power. Fourth and last, central
empirical, methodological, and theoretical considerations lead to a set
of critical questions on which future research should likely concentrate.
82.
Simonton, D. K. (1988b). Creativity, leadership, and chance. In R. J. Sternberg
(Ed.), The nature of creativity: Contemporary psychological perspectives
(pp. 386-426). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Creativity is a form of leadership
in that it entails personal influence over others creativity involves the
participation of chance processes both in the origination of new ideas
and in the social acceptance of those ideas by others the theory. Topics:
; chance permutations; configuration formation; configuration acquisition;
self-organization; communication and acceptance; communication configurations;
social acceptance empirical elaboration; creative process; anecdotes; introspective
reports; individual differences; motivation; productivity; developmental
antecedents; role models; formal education; Zeitgeist; marginality; multiples;
logical issues; empirical issues [from the chapter].
83.
Simonton, D. K. (1988c). Evolution and creativity. Journal of Social
and Biological Structures, 11, 151-153.
84.
Simonton, D. K. (1988d). Galtonian genius, Kroeberian configurations, and
emulation: A generational time-series analysis of Chinese civilization.
Journal
of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 230-238.
In his attack on Galton's (1869)
theory of genius, Kroeber (1944) introduced the ideas of cultural configurations
and individual emulation. These concepts are translated into testable hypotheses
that can be evaluated using a sample of 10,160 eminent creators, leaders,
and celebrities from Chinese civilization. After aggregating these historical
figures into 141 twenty-year periods for 35 achievement categories, generational
time-series analyses indicated (a) that major and minor figures tend to
fluctuate together across historical time and (b) that both unweighted
and weighted fluctuations are adequately described by first- or second-order
autoregressive models (once exponential trends are removed). Although the
results offer tentative support for Kroeber's position, some latitude remains
for a much-qualified version of Galton's thesis.
85.
Simonton, D. K. (1988e). Quality and purpose, quantity and chance. Creativity
Research Journal, 1, 68-74.
Discusses method and theory as points
of convergence and contrast between the paradigms adopted by D. K. Simonton
(e.g., 1980, 1988) and H. E. Gruber (1991) on creativity. While Gruber's
evolving systems approach to individual creativity is ideographic, Simonton
recommends single case historiometry, which can address ideographic and
nomothetic questions simultaneously. Simonton's (1988) chance-configuration
theory of genius is contrasted with Gruber's notion of "purpose" in his
evolving systems paradigm.
86.
Simonton, D. K. (1988f). Presidential style: Personality, biography, and
performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 928-936.
Past research in the personality
basis of leadership has led several investigators to study the characteristics
of American presidents using content-analytical and biographical measures.
In this article, biographical information on 39 U.S. chief executives provided
the basis for assessments by seven raters on 82 items concerning presidential
style. The presidents could be reliably discriminated on 49 items, which
a factor analysis reduced to five dimensions: the interpersonal, charismatic,
deliberative, creative, and neurotic styles. These styles were shown to
be related to broader personality traits, biographical experiences, and
both objective and subjective indicators of leader performance.
87.
Simonton, D. K. (1988g). Scientific genius: A psychology of science.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
In this book, Dean Keith Simonton,
develops a theory of scientific genius. His starting point in Donald Campbell's
"blind variation and selective retention" model of creativity, which he
elaborates into his own "chance-configuration" theory. He then uses this
to account for key aspects of pathbreaking science. He considers the mental
processes and behaviors behind the creative act, including intuition, incubation,
and serendipity. He discusses the cognitive and motivational styles of
great scientists in terms of a personality typology. He examines the causes
and consequences of exceptional productivity: individual differences in
lifetime output, the functional relation between age and achievement, the
probabilistic connection between quantity and quality, and such issues
as the Ortega hypothesis, the Yuasa phenomenon, and Planck's principle.
He reviews the developmental antecedents of distinguished scientific work
- family background, education, role models, marginality, and the zeitgeist
- with respect to their complex impact on the growth of creative potential
[from the cover].
88.
Simonton, D. K. (1989a). Age and creative productivity: Nonlinear estimation
of an information-processing model. International Journal of Aging and
Human Development, 29, 23-37.
A two-step cognitive model is outlined
that explicates the key empirical findings on the relation between age
and creative productivity. Two primary information-processing parameters,
the ideation and elaboration rates, define a mathematical function that
both describes the age curves and specifies how those curves vary across
disciplines. To validate the model further, a nonlinear estimation program
was applied to previously published tabulations on the longitudinal fluctuations
in creative output. The resulting parameter estimates also yield the expected
peak age and the creative half-life for each domain of achievement. Despite
the prediction of a post-peak decline, the model's implications for creativity
over the life span are optimistic.
89.
Simonton, D. K. (1989b). The chance-configuration theory of scientific
creativity. In B. Gholson, W. R. Shadish, Jr., R. A. Neimeyer, & A.
C. Houts (Eds.), The psychology of science: Contributions to metascience
(pp. 170- 213). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
The chance-configuration theory
provides a useful "psychology of science" / it explicates anecdotal and
introspective reports concerning the creative process in science, and it
integrates the varied empirical findings regarding the personality characteristics
and developmental antecedents associated with scientific creativity the
theory specifically explains the probability distribution of multiple grades,
the occurrence of both simultaneous contributions and rediscoveries, and
the probabilistic link between scientific eminence and multiples participation
[From the chapter].
90.
Simonton, D. K. (1989c). Creativity and individual development. In T. Husen
& T. N. Postlethwaite (Eds.),
International encyclopedia of education:
Supplementary volume one (pp. 181-184). New York: Pergamon Books.
91.
Simonton, D. K. (1989d). Shakespeare's sonnets: A case of and for single-case
historiometry. Journal of Personality, 57, 695-721.
The two oldest forms of psychohistory,
as generically defined, are psychbiography (idiographic, qualitative, and
single-case) and historiometry (nomothetic, quantitative, and multiple-case).
In practice this distinction gets blurred, both because psychobiography
is often nomothetic (e.g., psychoanalytic) and because historiometry may
work with N = 1. After outlining the assets of single-case
historiometry, a specific case is given in an analysis of 154 sonnets of
William Shakespeare. These sonnets were first reliably differentiated on
aesthetic success according to an archival popularity measure, and then
this relative merit was predicted using content analytical measures suggested
by research on artistic creativity. The superior sonnets (a) treat specific
themes, (b) display considerable thematic richness in the number of issues
discussed, (c) exhibit greater linguistic complexity as gauged by such
objective measures as the type-token ratio and adjective-verb quotient,
and (d) feature more primary process imagery (using Martindale's Regressive
Imagery Dictionary). Afterdiscussing how these results can enlarge our
general understanding of artistic creativity as well as our specific appreciation
of Shakespeare's creativity, the potential application of single-case historiometry
to intrinsically psychobiographical problems is examined.
92.
Simonton, D. K. (1989e). The surprising nature of scientific genius.
The Scientist, 3 (February 6), 9, 11.
93.
Simonton, D. K. (1989f). The swan-song phenomenon: Last-works effects for
172 classical composers. Psychology and Aging, 4, 42-47.
Creative individuals approaching
their final years of life may undergo a transformation in outlook that
is reflected in their last works. This hypothesized effect was quantitatively
assessed for an extensive sample of 1,919 works by 172 classical composers.
The works were independently gauged on seven aesthetic attributes (melodic
originality, melodic variation, repertoire popularity, aesthetic significance,
listener accessibility, performance duration, and thematic size), and potential
last-works effects were operationally defined two separate ways (linearly
and exponentially). Statistical controls were introduced for both longitudinal
changes (linear, quadratic, and cubic age functions) and individual differences
(eminence and lifetime productivity). Hierarchical regression analyses
indicated that composers' swan songs tend to score lower in melodic originality
and performance duration but higher in repertoire popularity and aesthetic
significance. These last-works effects survive control for total compositional
output, eminence, and most significantly, the composer's age when the last
works were created.
94.
Simonton, D. K. (1990a). Creativity and wisdom in aging. In J. E. Birren
& K. W. Schaie (Eds.), Handbook of the psychology of aging (3rd
ed., pp. 320-329). New York: Academic Press.
Begins by briefly reviewing the
central empirical findings of lifespan changes in both creativity and wisdom.
An attempt is made to integrate these data by reviewing some empirical
and theoretical results that seem germane to both characteristics [from
the chapter].
95.
Simonton, D. K. (1990b). Creativity in the later years: Optimistic prospects
for achievement. Gerontologist, 30, 626-631.
Despite the apparent decline in
productivity in the final years of life, seven considerations suggest a
more favorable outlook: the actual magnitude of the age decrement; the
role of extrinsic influences; the contingency on career age; the impact
of individual differences in creative potential; the interdisciplinary
variation in the age curves; the virtual absence of an age decrement on
a contribution-for-contribution basis; and the resurgence of creativity
in the form of the swan-song phenomenon.
96.
Simonton, D. K. (1990c). Does creativity decline in the later years? Definition,
data, and theory. In M. Perlmutter (Ed.), Late life potential (pp.
83-112). Washington, DC: Gerontological Society of America.
97.
Simonton, D. K. (1990d). History, chemistry, psychology, and genius: An
intellectual autobiography of historiometry. In M. Runco & R. Albert
(Eds.), Theories of creativity (pp. 92-115). Newbury Park, CA: Sage
Publications.
In an autobiographical description
of a gifted youth as potential, he [the author] presented a cogent argument
for what might be called a reciprocal-interactive model / discussed the
ambivalence that distal cultures (e.g., educational opportunities and content)
may show to talent and the formative pushes and pulls of the proximal family
as a source of internalized material and motivation for continuous intellectual
and occupational growth [from the book].
98.
Simonton, D. K. (1990e). Lexical choices and aesthetic success: A computer
content analysis of 154 Shakespeare sonnets. Computers and the Humanities,
24, 251-264.
A research paradigm is suggested
that combines the perspectives of the humanistic scholar and the behavioral
scientist: After differentiating the popularity of actual aesethic products
using archival indices and then subjecting these compositions to objective
computer content analyses, further statistical treatment may divulge the
intrinsic properties responsible for differences in impact. This approach
is illustrated by an analysis of the 154 sonnets attributed to William
Shakespeare. Each sonnet was partitioned into four consecutive units (three
quatrains and a couplet), and then a computer gauged how the number of
words, different words, unique words, primary process imagery, and secondary
process imagery changed within each sonnet. Taking advantage of a previous
objective measure of the relative aesthetic merit of the sonnets, and implementing
a statistical search for interaction effects, it was demonstrated that
Shakespeare's lexical choices adopt a discernable pattern in the highly
popular creations that is not found in the more obscure poems. Perhaps
the most fascinating aspect of this pattern shift is the distinct manner
in which the poet modifies his vocabulary when composing the concluding
couplet in his best sonnets.
99.
Simonton, D. K. (1990f). Monsieur appends reflections. Creativity Research
Journal,3, 146-149.
Simonton responds to comments by
Bailin, Feldman, Hausman, Martindale, Rubenson, Stariha and Walberg, and
Stein on his article on political pathology and societal creativity.
100.
Simonton, D. K. (1990g). Personality and politics. In L. A. Pervin (Ed.),
Handbook of personality theory and research (pp. 670-692). New York:
Guilford.
The psychometric examination of
political leaders represents the leading edge of current personality research,
the present chapter is primarily a review of this innovative work the emphasis
is on the connection between personality and political leadership the fundamental
tenet of personality psychology is that people vary: considerable individual
differences exist on an impressive array of traits, and this variation
presumably translates into consistent patterns of behavior across diverse
situations / equally manifest to any observer of the political scene is
the parallel axiom that people differ in their relevant attitudes and actions
/ this personal diversity is apparent in ideology, party affiliation, candidate
preferences, policy choices, and political leadership for the personality
psychologist fascinated with political phenomena, the central question
is this: how do the personal traits that are so conspicuous in everyday
life determine the more exceptional events that characterize the world
of politics this issue breaks down into three subsidiary questions / how
does personality affect the political follower / how is personality involved
in the policy and performance of the political leader / how does personality
enter into the attitudes and behaviors of the political activist, the individual
who often occupies the middle ground between follower and leader [from
the chapter].
101.
Simonton, D. K. (1990h). Political pathology and societal creativity.
Creativity Research Journal, 3, 85-99.
Complementing the hypothesized intimate
relation between creativity and psychopathology at the individual level
are conjectures concerning the relation between creativity and pathology
at the sociocultural level. This article reviews the empirical literature
on the subject, with special focus on how societal creativity is affected
by international war, external threat, political instability, and civil
disturbances. Such events and circumstances are shown to affect both the
quantity of creative activity and the form that any creativity takes. Although
some of these effects are short-term and transient, other influences operate
after some delay and tend to be more lasting. There follows a discussion
of what these results imply about how creativity at the individual level
is shaped by the social context in which creative development and thought
take place.
102.
Simonton, D. K. (1990i). Psychology, science, and history: An
introduction to historiometry. New Haven, CT: Yale University
Press.
Is there a scientific way to assess
the validity of generalizations about historical events? Can we test psychological
hypotheses about human behavior? In this book Dean Keith Simonton describes
how the emerging field of historiometry provides such tests by applying
quantitative analyses to historical data about representative people and
events. Simonton, a pioneer in the field, presents an overview of historiometry,
explaining how it is practiced and how useful it can be to historians,
psychologists, and other social scientists. In clear and accessible language,
Simonton discusses the methodology of historiometry: formulating the basic
questions of a study, deciding what information is necessary, and analyzing
the information so as to assess the original hypothesis. He then shows
how historiometry has expanded our scientific understanding of such key
phenomena as genius, creativity, leadership, and aggression. By scrutinizing
the personal papers, biographies, and creative output of historical figures
ranging from composers, writers, and scientists to American presidents,
European monarchs, and generals, practitioners of historiometry can illuminate
many variables affecting human personality and achievement. Throughout
the book, Simonton provides examples of the way that historiometry offers
insights into such areas as the degree to which attitudes toward politicians
are influenced by specific persuasion techniques, the effect of economic
and political conditions on the authoritarian personality, and the impact
of genetic endowment, birth order, family background, and formal education
on personality development [from the jacket].
103.
Simonton, D. K. (1990j). Some optimistic thoughts on the pessimistic-rumination
thesis. Psychological Inquiry, 1, 73-75.
Comments on Zullow and Seligman's
study of the effects of pessimistic rumination on election outcomes and
discusses research strategies in political psychology. It is suggested
that Zullow and Seligman's explanatory construct needs to be integrated
with the prediction schemes of political scientists.
104.
Simonton, D. K. (1991a). Career landmarks in science: Individual differences
and interdisciplinary contrasts.
Developmental Psychology, 27, 119-130.
A conceptual framework is introduced
for interpreting individual differences in the developmental location of
the first, best, and last contributions of a creative career. Eight hypotheses
are offered that specify how the placement of the three landmarks over
the life span should vary according to both individual differences (in
age at career onset, lifetime productivity, and eminence) and interdisciplinary
contrasts (resulting from the inherent cognitive requirements of each field).
The hypotheses are then confirmed on a sample of 2,026 scientists and inventors
(even after introducing controls for potential artifacts). The results
(a) place further constraints on theoretical explanations of the relation
between age and creative productivity, (b) lead to new predictions regarding
how creative achievement may vary across and within careers, and (c) suggest
how to examine changes in creative potential from childhood through old
age.
105.
Simonton, D. K. (1991b). Creative productivity through the adult years.
Generations: Journal of the American Society on Aging, 15, 13-16.
Considers 6 points in discussing
the decline in creative powers in the latter half of life. The generalized
age curve is a function of career rather than chronological age; the average
rate of output in the 70s falls to around half the rate seen at the career
optimum in the 30s and 40s; and age curves vary substantially across disciplines.
Also, studies show that the quality of output across the life span is strongly
associated with the quantity of output; individuals vary greatly in creative
potential; and creative productivity can undergo a substantial renaissance
in the final years.
106.
Simonton, D. K. (1991c). Emergence and realization of genius: The lives
and works of 120 classical composers. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 61, 829-840.
Building on a model of individual
differences in career development, new predictions are proposed regarding
the preparatory phase of a creative life. After data on an elite sample
of 120 classical composers from the Renaissance to the 20th century were
collected, productivity variables were defined in terms of both themes
and works, and the "hits" in each category were identified according to
actual popularity. The theory successfully provided a foundation for understanding
the positive, negative, and null relationships among eminence, lifetime
output, maximum annual output, and the ages of first lessons, first composition,
first hit, best hit, last hit, maximum annual output, and death. On the
basis of the results, further questions are raised regarding the early
childhood roots of adulthood creativity.
107.
Simonton, D. K. (1991d). Genes and genius from Galton to Freud. Behavioral
and Brain Sciences, 14, 406-407.
108.
Simonton, D. K. (1991e). Latent-variable models of posthumous reputation:
A quest for Galton's G. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,
60, 607-619.
Galton's (1869) theory of genius
posits an intimate correspondence between personal ability and social eminence.
This connection implies that the covariance structure for multiple indicators
of distinction is described by a simple single-factor model. After defining
rival models that predict no traitlike consistency and stability, structural
equation software programs (TETRAD and EQS) were used to test 4 alternative
measurement models on 5 data sets of between 6 and 16 indicators each (28
presidents, 2,012 philosophers, 772 artists, 696 composers, and a subset
of 92 composers). Despite slight method artifacts that sometimes suggested
the addition of correlated error terms, a single-factor model provided
a precise and parsimonious explanation for all covariance matrices, even
when the eminence measures were separated by several decades. Galton's
G
may have a behavioral basis in an achiever's lifetime contributions.
109.
Simonton, D. K. (1991f). Personality correlates of exceptional personal
influence: A note on Thorndike's (1950) creators and leaders. Creativity
Research Journal, 4, 67-78.
Past investigations suggest that
the magnitude of social influence exerted by an eminent individual may
be determined by similar personality traits for both creators and leaders.
This hypothesis is tested by examining 91 historical figures whom Thorndike
(1950) had assessed on 48 characteristics. After collapsing the assessments
into the four dimensions of industriousness, extraversion, aggressiveness,
and intelligence, and objectively measuring the differential eminence of
the individuals using a composite archival index, it was found that achieved
distinction in both domains was a positive linear function of intelligence
and aggressiveness. Not only were the functions identical across both creators
and leaders, but the relationships also seemed to be transhistorically
invariant.
110.
Simonton, D. K. (1991g). Predicting presidential greatness: An alternative
to the Kenney and Rice Contextual Index. Presidential Studies Quarterly,
21, 301-305.
In this journal Kenney and Rice
proposed an equation that predicts a president's long-term reputation in
terms of eight contextual factors. Their Contextual Index is compared with
an earlier six-variable equation that was constructed from a multivarite
analysis of a huge database on presidential leadership. Despite some overlap
in predictors, the recommended alternative has twice the predictive power
and is robust across over a dozen different assessments of presidential
greatness. The six predictors are years in office, number of war years,
assassination, war hero, intelligence, and scandal. However, both predictive
schemes suggest that Reagan will go down in history as an above-average
but not outstanding chief executive.
111.
Simonton, D. K. (1991h). [Review of the book
Genius:
The history of an idea, P. Murray (Ed.)]. Journal of the History
of the Behavioral Sciences, 27, 174-176.
112.
Simonton, D. K. (1991i). [Review of the book
Understanding
quantitative history, L. Haskins & K. Jeffrey]. Social Science
Quarterly, 72, 855-856.
113.
Simonton, D. K. (1992a). The child parents the adult: On getting genius
from giftedness. In N. Colangelo, S. G. Assouline, & D. L. Ambroson
(Eds.), Talent development: Volume I. Proceedings from the 1991 Henry
B. and Jocelyn Wallace National Research Symposium on Talent Development
(pp. 278-297). Unionville, NY: Trillium Press.
114.
Simonton, D. K. (1992b). Gender and genius in Japan: Feminine eminence
in masculine culture. Sex Roles, 27, 101-119.
The number of distinguished women
was hypothesized to fluctuate over consecutive historical periods according
to concomitant change in the dominant male culture. Three conjectures were
evaluated in 2,453 Japanese creators and leaders active between 580 and
1959. Applying generational time-series analysis to 69 consecutive 20-year
periods, indicators gauged changes in female literary and nonliterary eminence
along with male literary activity, power and aggressive behavior, and ideology.
Although the emergence of gender-biased belief systems was negatively associated
with female distinction in all domains, literary success of both men and
women was linked to similar contextual factors, especially a negative association
with male power and aggressive activities. The group-level results are
interpreted in terms of possible individual and interpersonal processes.
115.
Simonton, D. K. (1992c). Late-life creativity: Who is really over the hill?
Executive
Health's Good Health Report, 28, 1, 4-6.
116.
Simonton, D. K. (1992d). Leaders of American psychology, 1879-1967: Career
development, creative output, and professional achievement. Journal
of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 5-17.
Building on previous work in the
metasciences, this article examines 69 eminent psychologists who helped
make the US a center of disciplinary activity. After measuring professional
eminence (occupying the American Psychological Association presidency and
posthumous reputation), creative output (using both citation indicators
and a content analysis of titles), and career development (aspects of graduate
training and institutional affiliations), along with essential control
variables, the analyses (a) provide a sketch of the "typical" eminent American
psychologist, (b) trace the historical trends in the general profile across
8 decades, and (c) identify some cognitive and behavioral factors underlying
differential distinction.
117.
Simonton, D. K. (1992e). Presidential greatness and personality: A response
to McCann (1992). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63,
676-679.
McCann (1992) offered a new set
of equations that predict presidential greatness. He explicitly argued
that his new equations contradict the attributional model put forward by
Simonton (1986, 1987). However, several conceptual and statistical problems
may undermine the force of his argument. These include (a) a selection
procedure that exploits arbitrary fluctuations in samples and ratings,
(b) the choice not to reopen the search for situational predictors, (c)
an excessive reliance on an inferior measure of presidential greatness,
(d) the use of statistical procedures that may distort the true effect
sizes, and (e) the decision to ignore the larger body of research supporting
Simonton's equations and their theoretical interpretation.
118.
Simonton, D. K. (1992f). Psychoeconomic creativity - How psychological?
How economic? How creative?: A response to Rubenson and Runco. New Ideas
in Psychology, 10, 167-171.
Comments on the article by Rubenson
and Runco concerning a psychoeconomic model of the creative process and
discusses the pros and cons of the model.
119.
Simonton, D. K. (1992g). [Review of the book
Creativity
and psychological health: Origins of personal vitality and creative freedom,
F. Barron]. American Journal of Psychology, 105, 119-123.
120.
Simonton, D. K. (1992h). [Review of the book
Innovation
and creativity at work: Psychological and organizational strategies,
M. A. West & J. L. Farr (Eds.)]. Administrative Science Quarterly,
37, 679-681.
121.
Simonton, D. K. (1992i). The social context of career success and course
for 2,026 scientists and inventors.
Personality and Social Psychology
Bulletin, 18, 452-463.
The career success and course of
2,026 eminent scientists and inventors were examined relative to the social
networks in which their work took place. Career success was gauged by eminence
and lifetime contributions; career course was assessed by the age at first,
best, and last contributions and the career duration. Once social relationships
were grouped into 15 categories, such as mentors, collaborators, and successors,
the relationships were assessed according to their number, eminence, and
age gap. Controlling for potential artifacts, analysis revealed how career
achievements were associated with the presence of specific proximal and
distal interactions and influences across and within generations. Isaac
Newton is shown to typify the overall pattern of results.
122.
Simonton, D. K. (1993a). Blind variations, chance configurations, and creative
genius. Psychological Inquiries, 4, 225-228.
Comments on Eysenck's proposed theory
of a link between creativity and psychoticism. It is contended that Eysenck
has misconstrued what the author meant by the word "chance" in his own
theories. The main cause of this misunderstanding is that many people perceive
chance in dichotomous terms. A process is thought to be either chancy or
determined by some logic. To appreciate properly the role of chance in
creativity, however, the phenomenon should be contemplated as a continuum.
It is argued that the creative process becomes more probabilistic when
the number of potential paths to a solution increases and when the subjective
odds that these alternative paths will lead to a solution becomes more
equal and, so, equally small besides. By defining the probabilistic nature
of creativity this way, the controversy between Eysenck's view and Simonton's
view disappears.
123.
Simonton, D. K. (1993b). Creative genius in music: Mozart and other composers.
In P. F. Ostwald & L. S. Zegans (Ed.), The pleasures and perils
of genius: Mostly Mozart (pp. 1-28). New York: International Universities
Press.
[Defines] what we mean by genius,
with emphasis on how we can justify assigning that label to Mozart, reviews
the key empirical findings about musical genius, and discusses how and
whether Mozart exemplifies the emerging picture psychometric genius. Topics:
historiometric genius / the life of genius [developmental antecedents,
career performance] / the works of genius [stress, aging, death] / Mozart
as prototypical genius [from the chapter].
124.
Simonton, D. K. (1993c). Esthétique et créativité
en musique classique: Ce que les ordinateurs peuvent décrypter à
partir des six premières notes [Esthetics and creativity in classical
music: What computers can decipher from the first six notes]. Bulletin
de Psychologie, 46, 476-483.
125.
Simonton, D. K. (1993d). From childhood giftedness to creative genius.
In J. Brzezinski, S. Di Nuovo, T. Marek, & T. Maruszewski (Eds.), Creativity
and consciousness: Philosophical and psychological dimensions (pp.
367-381). Amsterdam: Rodopi.
126.
Simonton, D. K. (1993e). Further Details on VOTER HELPERTM 1.0:
A response to the editor's comments.
Political Psychology, 14, 555-558.
Responds to comments by S. A. Renshon
concerning the present author's (1994) views on selecting the best political
leaders for the US presidency. Simonton clarifies his position about the
way future political psychologists might make recommendations and the use
of the hypothetical software, VOTER HELPER.
127.
Simonton, D. K. (1993f). Genius and chance: A Darwinian perspective. In
J. Brockman (Ed.), Creativity: The Reality Club IV (pp. 176-201).
New York: Simon & Schuster.
Discusses a spinoff of Darwin's
revolutionary hypothesis [of evolution] / Darwinian ideas have inspired
the framework for a comprehensive theory of creativity / outline this theory
under four headings: (1) thoughts and processes, (2) products and ideas,
(3) persons and personalities, and (4) schools and cultures / these headings
demarcate the four levels at which Darwinian creativity functions [from
the chapter].
128.
Simonton, D. K. (1993g). JCB's quarter century... and beyond. Journal
of Creative Behavior, 27 (4), v-vi.
129.
Simonton, D. K. (1993h). The new editor speaks... Journal of Creative
Behavior, 27 (3), v-vi.
130.
Simonton, D. K. (1993i). Putting the best leaders in the White House: Personality,
policy, and performance.
Political Psychology, 14, 539-550.
This paper discusses what political
psychology might have to offer in making it more likely that the best leaders
might become presidents of the United States. An analytical framework outlines
some of the more likely contributions of the political psychologist to
the electoral process. This framework defines how the leader's personality,
likely policy preferences, and political performance may be objectively
inferred from available biographical and content analytical data. After
reviewing examples of relevant empirical research, the paper closes with
a discussion of the assets and liabilities of the analysis.
131.
Simonton, D. K. (1994a). Computer content analysis of melodic structure:
Classical composers and their compositions.
Psychology of Music, 22,
31-43.
The computerized content analysis
of musical structure can reveal a great deal about the psychology of musical
aesthetics and creativity. This is shown in a series of studies on 15,618
themes by 479 classical composers. Computer assessments of a composition's
originality are associated with (a) temporal changes across time, whether
in the successive movements of a large composition, different stages of
a composer's career, or alterations of the prevalent stylistic zeitgeist
in Western music; (b) dramatic events and situations in the composer's
life; and (c) the aesthetic importance, listener accessibility, and ultimate
poularity of the compositions producted. Notwithstanding the apparent simplicity
of the measure, the computer can still infer many important factors that
affect the creation and evaluation of musical compositions.
132.
Simonton, D. K. (1994b). Creativity inside out - but not upside down [Review
of the book
Creative cognition:
Theory, research, and applications, R. A. Finke, T. B. Ward, &
S. M. Smith].
Contemporary Psychology, 39, 12-13.
133.
Simonton, D. K. (1994c). Editor's comments... Reflections on the past year.
Journal of Creative Behavior, 28 (4), iv.
134.
Simonton, D. K. (1994d). Genius and giftedness: Parallels and discrepancies.
In N. Colangelo, S. G. Assouline, & D. L. Ambroson (Eds.), Talent
development: Volume II. Proceedings from the 1993 Henry B. and Jocelyn
Wallace National Research Symposium on Talent Development (pp. 39-82).
Dayton, OH: Ohio Psychology Publishing.
135.
Simonton, D. K. (1994e). Greatness: Who makes history and why.
New York: Guilford Press.
In this [book, the author] examines
a range of important personalities and events that have influenced the
course of history. He discusses how people who go down in history might
be different from the rest of us, and explores which personality traits
predispose certain people to become world leaders, movie stars, scientific
geniuses, and star athletes. In exploring the psychology of greatness,
this [book] also sheds light on the characteristics that any of us may
share with history-making people [from the cover].
136.
Simonton, D. K. (1994f). Individual differences, developmental changes,
and social context. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 17, 552-553.
137.
Simonton, D. K. (1994g). [Review of the book
Motivation
and personality: Handbook of thematic content analysis, C. P. Smith,
Ed.]. Political Psychology, 15, 603-606.
Author examines the principal assets
of the reviewed book. These include an extremely comprehensive treatment
of the principal methods of thematic content analysis and the provision
of coding manuals and practice materials to enable researchers to master
the techniques. While concentrating on motivational variables, content
analytical strategies are provided for other domains as well, such as cognitive
and interpersonal. Not every possible content analytical system is presented,
and the volume can become rather technical and demanding, but on the whole
it represents a major contribution to the measurement literature.
138.
Simonton, D. K. (1994h). Scientific eminence, the history of psychology,
and term paper topics: A metascience approach. Teaching of Psychology,
21, 169-171.
Teachers of courses in the history
of psychology sometimes assign term papers requiring the treatment of a
single major figure in the discipline. One instructive conceptual framework
for writing such "great person" essays is to interpret a psychologist's
life and work according to the typical profile of an eminent scientist.
This profile is provided by empirical research in the metasciences, especially
the psychology of science. A sample handout suggests some of the questions
that students can address when evaluating whether an eminent psychologist.